The Senior Citizens League predicted a 3.5 percent Cost of Living Adjustment for 2027, and their review noted the 2026 COLA was 2.8 percent as reported by the organization.
TSCL also reported the average monthly Social Security payment for all beneficiaries was $1,938 in June 2026, and that retired workers received $2,084 on average.
TSCL explained how the Social Security Administration currently computes the COLA using the CPI W, measured as the average change from July through September each year.
The group argued the CPI W understates inflation for older Americans because seniors spend more on housing and medical care, and less on transportation and apparel than urban wage earners.
TSCL compared index weights and found housing at about 48.05 percent in the CPI E versus roughly 41.93 percent in the CPI W, and medical care at about 11.30 percent in the CPI E versus about 6.95 percent in the CPI W.
Over the last ten years TSCL reported the average COLA would have been about 2.8 percent using the CPI W and about 3.0 percent using the CPI E, while their proposed CPI BEST would have averaged roughly 4.0 percent.
Long Range Solvency Proposals And Estimated Effects
The Social Security Administration posted a Long Range Solvency Provisions summary that lists several options to change how COLAs are computed and who receives them, and the SSA said its estimates use the intermediate assumptions from the 2026 Trustees Report.
Options include reducing the annual COLA by 1 percentage point starting December 2027 and by 0.5 percentage points under a separate proposal beginning the same month.
The SSA also described switching to a chained CPI W to compute the COLA, which the agency estimates would lower the annual COLA by about 0.3 percentage points on average if begun in December 2027, and a similar chained CPI W option beginning December 2029 with the same estimated effect.
Another proposal would add 1 percentage point to the annual COLA for beneficiaries who have lived past a specified age, where the specified age equals 65 plus the unisex cohort life expectancy at 65, beginning December 2027.
The SSA listed a plan to compute the COLA using the CPI E starting December 2028, which the agency estimates would increase the annual COLA by about 0.15 percentage points on average.
Additional variations include applying a chain weighted CPI U only to old age and survivors benefits beginning December 2027, and a means tested approach for December 2028 that uses MAGI thresholds of $117,300 for single filers and $234,600 for joint filers to determine COLA eligibility, with no COLA for those above the thresholds.
The SSA noted in one chained CPI proposal the new computation would not apply to disability insurance benefits and would apply to old age benefits except for formerly disabled workers who convert to retired-worker status.
Lawmakers have introduced memoranda reflecting similar provisions in recent years, and the SSA page cites examples from sponsors including Hirono and Sanders among others.
