Beer volumes fell sharply in early spring, with Nielsen-tracked data showing beer, flavored malt beverage and cider volumes down 6.3 percent year over year through the week ending May 2 on both two- and four-week trailing bases.
The slowdown intensified after mid-April, when category declines had been about 3 percent, and became most visible in convenience stores. Bernstein said volumes in chains such as 7-Eleven, Wawa, Shell and Exxon declined roughly 9 percent year over year for the two weeks since April 26.
Analysts linked the drop to fuel costs, noting a negative correlation between a state’s absolute gasoline price and sequential beer volume changes, according to Bernstein analyst Nadine Sarwat. AAA data showed the US average gasoline price near $4.51 a gallon and reported a roughly 52 percent rise in prices since the start of the Iran war.
The pain has been strongest in higher fuel cost markets. Bernstein highlighted California as the weakest market, with about a 16 percent deceleration in beer volume between the four weeks trailing May 2 and the four weeks trailing April 4, where fuel averaged about $6.16 per gallon. Arizona and Texas saw volume declines of about 10 percent and nearly 7 percent respectively, with gas averaging $4.82 and $4 per gallon in those states.
At the brewer level, the data show a mixed picture. Within AB InBev Michelob Ultra held relatively steady while Bud Light and Budweiser posted double-digit declines. Boston Beer appeared weakest among major brewers, Molson Coors lost share, and Constellation Brands gained share. The University of Michigan survey also reported a fresh record low in consumer sentiment with one-third citing gas prices as their biggest concern.
Brewers Weigh In On Styles Considered Dead
Craft brewers offered divergent views on which styles have peaked, naming red ale, brut IPA, black IPA, slushie sours, East Coast IPA and milkshake IPA among those past their prime, while others said no style is truly dead.
Owners Alyssa Hoberer and Jacob Kemple of Full Frame Beer in Denver said demand is highly local and red ales underperform in saturated urban markets. JP Houchens of Simple Brewing Company in New York City called brut IPA short lived, noting elements survive in cold IPA and West Coast pils.
Sean McGuire of Future Days Beer Company said black IPA availability has waned but his brewery plans to revive the style with Nightbird and a new black IPA in August. Garret Conley of UnHitched Brewing argued slushie sours are effectively dead due to poor drinkability, lactose exclusions, added ingredient costs and competition from traditional blended sours.
Trevor Schlam of Strange Days Brewing cited the decline of East Coast IPAs from their earlier prominence. Other brewers including Ben Mullet and Leigh Nelson said style names often die while techniques and flavors persist under new labels. Eric Brown of Talea questioned whether any style is ever truly gone, calling craft beer’s revival impulse part of the market.
