U S economists and market observers questioned whether ai investment alone powered last year's expansion, and new analysis suggests that claim is overstated, according to MRB Partners U S economic strategist Prajakta Bhide.
Bhide wrote in a January report and told CNBC that consumption was the most crucial driver of U S real GDP growth in 2025, with AI related capital expenditure ranking second, not first.
Without adjusting for imports, Bhide found ai related components appeared to add roughly 90 basis points, or 0.9 percentage point, to average real GDP growth between the first and third quarters of 2025.
After adjusting for imports of computers, peripherals and parts, semiconductors and related devices, and telecom equipment that Bhide considered ai related equipment, she estimated the net average contribution fell to between 40 and 50 basis points, about 0.4 to 0.5 percentage point.
Bespoke Investment Group reached a similar conclusion in December, saying ai linked categories accounted for about 15 percent of quarterly GDP growth in the second and third quarters, and for less than 5 percent of overall GDP.
The quarterly GDP profile was mixed, with real GDP shrinking in the first quarter and then rising sharply in later quarters, and Bhide argued the adjusted ai impact dispels the idea that GDP would have slumped without the ai capex boom.
Data centers attracted headline attention, and the reporting noted large investments and record bond issuance to finance facilities such as Meta's 5 gigawatt Hyperion data center under construction in Richland Parish Louisiana, but Bhide said software and computers made the larger ai related contribution to GDP.
Outlook And Risks
Bhide told CNBC she expects resilient consumption to support growth in 2026, even as income growth slows and wealth concentrates among top earners, and she sees fiscal support offsetting weaker aggregate income growth.
She also warned that a negative shock to ai optimism could pose a risk to GDP, but she maintained the more realistic, smaller estimate of ai's impact reduces the risk that the U S economy would have sharply underperformed without ai capex.
Bhide expects further ai investment, Federal Reserve rate cuts, and a stabilized unemployment rate to support growth, while saying she will monitor quarterly productivity statistics and the pace of job creation closely.
