The stock market today opened with a classic conflict playbook as equities fell and oil and the dollar rose, pushing the S&P 500 down about 0.8 percent at the open and to as low as 1.2 percent below the prior level, while the Dow and Russell 2000 also traded more than 1 percent lower at their intraday lows.
Buyers returned to defend the S&P's 100 day moving average and ultimately pushed the index into positive territory and back toward the 50 day moving average, even after Secretary of Defense Hegseth and President Trump did not rule out boots on the ground in Iran if necessary, and Hegseth said the US would not be pulled into an endless war.
The Russell 2000 led the rebound with retail and thematic trades among the strongest areas, and the Roundhill Meme ETF rose about 4 percent as reported, showing continued appetite for meme and retail exposures.
Market Breadth Shows Safe Havens and Sector Divergence
Energy and Industrials were the only clearly higher sectors as oil moved sharply higher and defense related names rallied, while Industrials saw broad strength beyond defense contractors and even non contractor majors traded roughly 5 percent higher as reported.
Technology also gained ground as software stocks recouped losses, with the IGV software ETF up about 2 percent and Nvidia bouncing roughly 3 percent as reported, while quantum computing stocks were mixed and rare earth names were mostly higher.
Treasury markets did not draw haven bids, and global yields spiked across the curve by more than 10 basis points before easing, sending the 10 year back above 4.0 percent after it had broken below that level last week, as reported; inflation worries tied to energy and ISM Manufacturing data helped counter a pure safe haven flight.
The US Dollar Index surged through three major moving averages and strengthened about 1 percent versus the euro, yen and Swiss franc as reported, complicating the outlook for foreign currency sensitive assets and for those seeking safety in Treasuries.
Cryptocurrencies rallied alongside equities and commodities, with Bitcoin and Ether each up about 5 percent as reported; Bitcoin attempted to reclaim the 70,000 level while Ether rose back above 2,000, contributing to risk asset demand after initial selling.
