The Sell-Off Of US Bonds By Japan Stokes Global Market Jitters

The Sell-Off Of US Bonds By Japan Stokes Global Market Jitters

Summary
  • Takaichi pledged a two-year pause on the 8% food sales tax, creating fiscal shortfalls
  • JGB yields jumped, with 40-year yields above 4% and a failed 20-year auction
  • Japanese holders own about $1.2 trillion in US Treasuries, shifting flows could lift US yields
  • Officials and strategists warned higher yields raise borrowing costs and test fiscal credibility

The sell-off of US bonds by Japan has emerged as a market concern after Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi unveiled tax and spending pledges ahead of a snap election, according to reporting in the articles provided.

Takaichi said she would suspend the 8 percent consumption tax on food and non-alcoholic beverages for two years if returned to office, and her cabinet approved a 21.3 trillion yen stimulus package, Al Jazeera reported.

Japanese government data cited in the reporting estimate the consumption tax pause would create about a 5 trillion yen revenue shortfall each year, while the stimulus included one-time cash handouts of 20,000 yen per child and utility and food support measures.

Markets reacted sharply, with long-dated Japanese government bond yields climbing and 40-year yields rising above 4 percent, the reporting said, and a 20-year auction earlier failed to attract sufficient bids, signalling weaker demand.

Analysts quoted in the pieces linked the move to broader policy shifts as the Bank of Japan scales back bond purchases, a change that reduces a key source of yield support, Sayuri Shirai of Keio University and Anastassia Fedyk of UC Berkeley told Al Jazeera.

Global Spillovers, Reactions And Risks

Rising Japanese yields have fed into global markets, pushing up yields on long US Treasuries and other sovereign debt, the articles reported, as Japanese investors hold about $1.2 trillion in US Treasuries.

That dynamic can prompt domestic investors to prefer higher local returns, reducing foreign demand for US bonds and nudging US yields higher, experts including Masahiko Loo of State Street Investment Management told the reporting.

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent expressed concern about pressures on US Treasury prices and said he expected Japanese counterparts to calm markets, according to one of the articles.

Observers warned higher yields raise borrowing costs broadly, affecting mortgages, corporate loans and asset valuations, and noted global debt remains elevated, which could test fiscal credibility in heavily indebted countries, Ed Yardeni and George Saravelos commented in coverage.

At the same time, some economists said Japan is not likely near a solvency crisis because most debt is domestically held and denominated in yen, and net debt trajectories show some improvement, Thomas Mathews and Masahiko Loo told Al Jazeera.

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