Taiwan says China could exploit US redeployments linked to the Iran war, a concern Reuters reporters Ben Blanchard and Yimou Lee documented after Taipei noticed renewed large scale People’s Liberation Army air incursions. A senior Taiwanese security official told Reuters, "This is a moment for China to exercise influence," speaking on condition of anonymity.
The Ministry of National Defense cited Minister Wellington Koo saying China’s intention to annex Taiwan by force "has always existed," Reuters reported, and Taiwan has proposed an extra US$40 billion in defense spending. Taipei officials pointed to a perceived dip in Chinese operations followed by a return, which they see as effort to capitalise on perceived US focus elsewhere.
Taiwanese authorities also warned of Beijing using the Middle East war in cognitive warfare, according to an internal memo reported by Reuters. The memo cited AI generated videos and state media narratives that seek to cast doubt on US equipment performance and induce public anxiety over energy security, the Taiwanese government said.
Energy, Diplomacy And China’s Calculus
China held back hours before issuing a formal response to the US and Israeli strikes on Iran, the Associated Press reported, saying it was "highly concerned" and urging an immediate halt to military operations. Foreign Minister Wang Yi condemned the strikes as unacceptable and called for resumed dialogue, AP said.
AP analysts and outside experts described China as cautious, focused on its Asian priorities and keen to preserve a delicate relationship with the US. AP cited analysts who said Beijing values ties with Washington more than its relationship with Tehran and is unlikely to provide rapid battlefield support to Iran, according to Muhammad Zulfikar Rakhmat and others quoted by AP.
An analytical briefing on the wider fallout said China imported about 1.4 million barrels per day from Iran, representing roughly 13 percent of its seaborne oil imports, and noted that Iranian exports had collapsed after the strikes. The analysis said China holds around 1.3 billion to 1.4 billion barrels in strategic and commercial reserves, covering about four months of imports, and that Russia raised shipments by about 300,000 barrels per day to China.
The analysis warned a prolonged conflict and a closed Strait of Hormuz risk higher freight costs, supply chain bottlenecks and inflation. It cited modelling that suggests a 25 percent oil price rise could cut GDP by 0.5 percent, underscoring why Beijing has diversified suppliers and built reserves. The report also said a lengthy US engagement in Iran could divert US forces from the Indo Pacific, a factor Taipei officials and analysts say China might seek to exploit, even as Beijing publicly urges deescalation.
