China military modelling in the Heritage Foundation's TIDALWAVE report prompted the Trump administration to request redactions, according to the report's authors and a Heritage spokesperson.
The authors said the AI enabled model ran thousands of iterations using only open source, unclassified government, academic, industry and commercial data, and an unredacted version was provided to authorized US government recipients for internal use.
Heritage said it showed the report to high level national security officials who asked for some specifics to be crossed out before public release, and the report lists redactions as intended to prevent adversaries from remediating or exploiting vulnerabilities.
The report's redacted findings warn US forces would reach a breaking point far sooner than China in a high intensity conflict, with the first 30 to 60 days determining the long term shape and outcome of the war, the authors said.
It details rapid platform attrition and brittle logistics, and warns that concentrated forward bases, notably in Japan and Guam, leave US airpower exposed to missile strikes that could destroy runways, fuel depots and parked aircraft early in a conflict.
Authors reported that critical precision guided munitions begin to become unavailable within five to seven days and are largely exhausted within 35 to 40 days, and that fuel throughput under fire, not aggregate stockpiles, emerges as the most decisive vulnerability.
Implications Risks And Calls For Action
The report projects China can sustain high intensity operations for months longer, extending beyond the point at which US forces would culminate, because substitution effects stretch Chinese munitions availability, the authors said.
It warns of catastrophic losses in the Pacific and a global economic shock estimated at roughly 10 trillion dollars stemming from disrupted shipping lanes, destroyed infrastructure and a collapse of Taiwan's semiconductor production, as reported by the authors.
The authors conclude US industrial capacity is insufficient, citing a smaller than planned US Navy fleet, shipyard workforce shortages and delays, while China continues to outpace the US in producing naval hulls, the report states.
Department of War officials declined to comment on the discussions around publication, but said the department does not endorse third party analyses and takes seriously protecting information that, if aggregated, could have operational security implications.
The report urges Congress to expand munitions stockpiles, strengthen fuel reserves and distribution, harden and disperse forward bases, and accelerate sustainment and logistics reforms to avoid operational defeat, the authors wrote.
