Forecasters are now warning that super el niño 2026 could develop this year, with several models aligning on a strong Pacific warming pattern.
AccuWeather reporter Anna Azallion said there is about a 15 percent chance of a super El Niño, as reported by AccuWeather, and some long range models suggest Pacific waters could warm by as much as 2.5 degrees Celsius later this year.
NOAA and other forecasters note a super El Niño usually means more upper level winds across the Atlantic, increasing wind shear that tends to suppress tropical storm formation, as Jenn Hubbard explained at a Tampa briefing.
Todd Barron said stronger wind shear can reduce overall Atlantic hurricane counts but stressed it only takes one storm to cause severe damage, and forecasters pointed to Hurricane Andrew as an example of a damaging storm during an El Niño year.
Impacts Risks And Regional Outlooks
Meteorologists say impacts would vary by region, with the western US facing severe winter storms and later above average summer heat, while the southern US may see wetter fall and winter conditions that could relieve drought, according to Florida forecasters.
In South America, sources report northern Amazon areas and northern Brazil likely face prolonged drought and intense heatwaves, while Peru, Ecuador and southeastern South America may experience heavy rainfall and severe flooding, creating divergent regional threats.
Global health and ecosystems could feel broad effects, NOAA meteorologist Nat Johnson warned, saying shifts in weather will affect crop yields, disease spread, coral bleaching, fisheries and other Earth system components.
Paul Roundy urged planners to study past strong El Niño events of 1982 83, 1997 98 and 2015 16 for lessons on preparation, while Ben Noll cited European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasts guidance showing a high chance of an unusually strong event.
Forecasters also noted uncertainty because of the spring prediction barrier, and AccuWeather lead hurricane expert Alex DaSilva said the strength of El Niño late in the season could dramatically reduce late season Atlantic activity, though Pacific hurricane activity may increase, as Matthew Rosencrans of NOAA observed.
