Ramadan Start 2026 Forecasts Prompt Moon Sighting Debate

A tall white building with two towers and a moon in the sky (Photo by Tom PREJEANT on Unsplash )

A tall white building with two towers and a moon in the sky (Photo by Tom PREJEANT on Unsplash)

Summary
  • Ramadan start 2026 is forecast across North America in mid February
  • FCNA accepts astronomical calculations and cites ECFR visibility criteria
  • Astronomers predict the crescent may be visible on the evening of February 17
  • Dr Raja Zahid Nawaz urges calculations and transparency over impossible sightings

Ramadan start 2026 is widely forecast to begin in mid February, with the Fiqh Council of North America projecting fasting to start on February 18.

FCNA described this as a forecast rather than a final announcement and said it accepts astronomical calculations as a valid approach.

FCNA follows guidance from the European Council of Fatwa and Research, which briefs that at sunset the elongation should be at least 8 degrees and the moon should be at least 5 degrees above the horizon.

Astronomers cited in reporting predict the crescent moon will be visible on the evening of February 17, which would make the following day the initial official day of fasting for Muslims in North America.

Muslims in the US will fast from dawn, beginning with the Fajr prayer, until sunset at Maghrib, observing a complete abstention from food and drink during daylight hours.

Ramadan 2026 falls in winter for the Northern Hemisphere, so fasts in the US will last almost 12 to 13 hours on the first day and may increase as the month advances.

By contrast, countries in the Southern Hemisphere such as Chile, New Zealand and South Africa will face almost 14 to 15 hour fasts initially, with durations reducing over the month.

The United States Religion Census (2020) reports at least 4.5 million Muslims in the US, with one third Black, one third South Asian, almost a quarter Arab, and the remainder from varied backgrounds.

Moon Sighting Methods And Expert Warnings

Dr Raja Zahid Nawaz urged Muslims to rely on recognised scientific calculations, warning that the first faint crescent on February 17 will be impossible to sight from the UK, Saudi Arabia or Morocco.

Dr Nawaz told Birmingham Live that established astronomical factors include low altitude, insufficient elongation, minimal illumination and inadequate lag time after sunset, and he said in plain terms the moon will not be visible.

He criticised premature announcements that present calendar decisions as physical sightings, and he called for transparent statements that say whether a country follows calculations or a physical sighting.

Reporting also noted that at present the UK start is expected on February 18 or 19 because moonsighting on February 17 is judged not possible, and Islamic Relief has shared a provisional timetable beginning on February 18 subject to confirmed sighting.

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