Weather agencies and long‑standing almanacs are issuing sharply different long‑range predictions for the upcoming winter, leaving residents and planners weighing competing forecasts.
NOAA released its annual winter outlook using climate models and atmospheric trends, and it cites the arrival of La Niña as influential.
Forecasters at NOAA say the pattern "does slightly elevate the potential for colder temperatures in the central and eastern U.S., so also supports favored below‑normal temperatures in the Upper Midwest."
NOAA also projects wetter‑than‑average conditions for the Ohio Valley and southern Great Lakes region, and most of Alaska.
At the same time NOAA expects drier‑than‑average conditions in the Desert Southwest, the Southeast and along the Gulf Coast, and it warns drought will affect Texas to California.
The agency says the Pacific Northwest could see improving drought alongside a wetter and cooler‑than‑average winter.
The Farmers' Almanac presents a different picture, saying the season will bring "dramatic swings and widespread winter weather."
The Farmers' Almanac predicts the northern Plains to New England will record the coldest temperatures, and it advises the Northwest should prepare for a cold winter.
That publication expects significant rain mixed with snow along the East Coast, while it calls the Great Lakes, Ohio Valley and north‑central states a "classic winter wonderland."
The Old Farmer's Almanac offers an opposing tone, forecasting a calmer and gentler winter with slightly milder temperatures nationwide and extended dry stretches.
Editor Carol Connare tells readers to "Don't lose track of your snow shovels and umbrellas," and she warns some regions should "brace for a sharper chill."
Implications And Sources Of Disagreement
The differences reflect contrasting methods and declared assumptions, and that helps explain why forecasts diverge.
NOAA bases its outlook on long‑range computer models and observed atmospheric trends, the agency reports.
Both almanacs say they use proprietary and secret formulas to generate their long‑range forecasts, according to their own statements.
The conflicting predictions raise practical questions for communities and supply planners who track seasonal needs like snow removal and drought preparedness.
For now the only certain consensus is uncertainty, and the publications underscore different regional risks, from heavier precipitation in the Ohio Valley to expanded drought across the southern tier.
Readers are advised to follow updates from official forecasts and the almanacs, and to prepare basic winter gear as a precaution, echoing the guidance to dust off snow shovels and secure warm clothing.
