Forecasters say a strengthening El Nino is likely to reshape this winter's snow patterns across the US, tilting odds toward a wetter southern storm track. NOAA and the NWS Climate Prediction Center report the event now has better than a 90 percent chance of becoming a very strong El Nino, and estimate a 69 percent chance it could exceed previous events back to 1950.
NOAA observed sea surface temperature anomalies above 2 degrees Celsius in parts of the eastern equatorial Pacific, and agencies say atmospheric and ocean conditions support further strengthening. OpenSnow's seasonal maps favor above-normal snowfall across much of the Southwest, including California, Utah, Arizona, New Mexico, and parts of Colorado.
OpenSnow highlights the Central Sierra as one of the clearest signals for above-average snow and points to Utah ski areas and parts of southern Colorado as likely beneficiaries. Forecasters caution that warmer temperatures often accompany strong El Nino events, which could turn low-elevation snowfall into rain during some storms.
Regional Impacts Analysis And Forecast Confidence
Weather analysts note a clear north-south split in historical El Nino seasons, with the southern tier tending wetter and the northern tier tending warmer and drier. The Weather Company reports waters near 2 degrees Celsius above average and states that a super or very strong event meets established thresholds for exceptional warmth.
The Weather Company reviewed snowfall records since 1950 across about four dozen US locations and grouped seasons into El Nino, La Nina and neutral categories. They found 26 El Nino seasons, 25 La Nina seasons and 22 neutral seasons in the 73-year record, and warned sample sizes for strong events remain limited to only eight since 1950.
NOAA's Physical Sciences Laboratory composites of the four strongest post-1950 El Nino events show consistent winter wetness across California and the southern tier, and below-normal precipitation across the northern Rockies and interior Northwest. The Weather Company cites 2023-24 as an example of how strong El Nino can yield unusually warm winters across the Northern Tier, and it contrasts that season with the record warmth of 2015-16.
Forecasters emphasize uncertainty remains and urge caution before making long-term plans. Analysts point to the upcoming mid-October ENSO update as a key confirmation point for the strength and timing of the event, and Newsweek has sought comment from NOAA Applied Physical Scientist Michelle L'Heureux.
