Forecasters are warning that a strengthening El Niño is already shaping seasonal snowfall prospects across the US. NOAA and the National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center say El Niño has a greater than 90 percent chance of becoming very strong during the 2026‑27 fall and winter. NOAA also reported sea surface temperature anomalies in parts of the eastern equatorial Pacific have exceeded 2 degrees Celsius above normal.
Analysts at OpenSnow and model teams show a distinct north south split in projected snowfall. OpenSnow favors above normal snowfall across the Southwest, including California, Utah, Arizona, New Mexico and parts of Colorado. Severe Weather Europe, using ECMWF and UK Met Office output, finds similar signals for the central and southern US.
Major forecasting centers expect the southern storm track to be more active in a strong El Niño. That pattern typically brings wetter systems into the southern tier and the Sierra Nevada. OpenSnow highlighted the Central Sierra and parts of Southern Colorado and Utah as having some of the strongest above average snowfall signals.
Forecasters caution that warmer temperatures often accompany strong El Niño events. That means some lower elevation storms may fall as rain rather than snow. NOAA and OpenSnow both emphasized that even very strong El Niño events do not guarantee identical outcomes everywhere, and uncertainty remains as the season approaches.
Regional Impacts Timing And Model Agreement
Two major seasonal systems are broadly consistent for January and beyond. ECMWF and the UK Met Office models both show above normal snowfall expanding across the Plains, Midwest, Ohio Valley and Mid Atlantic in January. Severe Weather Europe noted an unusual degree of agreement between the two models for that month.
Regional winners likely include California’s Sierra Nevada and parts of the central and southern Rockies. Colorado and the Sierra were singled out as positioned to rebound after a weaker season. Utah sits near the dividing line between wetter south and drier north and remains the biggest forecast wildcard.
Historical composites used by one outlet underscored the role of event strength. Analysts noted only a handful of very strong El Niño seasons since 1950, limiting sample size. The World Meteorological Organization said the event is firmly established and expected to reach very strong intensity, and it put persistence through February 2027 at nearly 100 percent.
Forecasters urged caution for planners and ski operators. Seasonal maps show trends and anomalies, not individual storms. OpenSnow, the ECMWF and the UK Met Office all stressed evolving uncertainty and variable local outcomes.
