The Old Farmer's Almanac released its long‑range October outlook, predicting much of the US will be cooler than normal, Heidi Stonehill, executive editor, told Newsweek.
The Almanac says it blends solar science, climatology and meteorology and that it considers climate data and large‑scale signals such as El Niño in its forecasts.
The publication also asserts roughly 80 percent accuracy for seasonal temperature and precipitation trends, while noting its forecasts describe broad trends rather than daily conditions.
Regionally the Almanac sees the Northeast starting the month with sunnier, cool weather, shifting to wetter conditions midmonth, then milder sun before showers return late in October.
Along the Atlantic Corridor the outlook calls for a cool start followed by scattered showers and milder conditions, with temperatures about one degree above normal.
The Appalachians are expected to begin cool and sunny, then grow wetter midmonth, and finish with a warmer, sunnier stretch, with both temperature and precipitation one degree below average.
The Southeast should see early rain, a sunnier spell, midmonth heavier rain in northern areas, and a milder late month, with slightly below‑average temperatures overall.
Florida is forecast to experience scattered showers and mild conditions early, a cooler sunny interval, then renewed showers, with slightly above‑average temperatures statewide.
Implications And El Niño Context
The Almanac's October pattern contrasts with a NOAA seasonal signal that favors above‑normal temperatures across much of the central and eastern US and wetter conditions in parts of the Southwest and southern Plains.
Almanac senior editor Tim Goodwin told Newsweek the onset of an El Niño factored into forecasts, and the publication adjusted its outlook accordingly.
The Almanac notes Alaska may run several degrees warmer than average while seeing below‑normal precipitation, and Hawaii is expected to be slightly cooler with below‑average rainfall.
A 2023 NOAA review of the seven strongest El Niños since 1950 found most produced wetter winters for parts of the West Coast and Southern US, though some strong events yielded drier results in select locations.
NOAA's review cited heavy rain, flooding and landslides in California during particularly powerful past episodes, and it warned that strong El Niños do not guarantee similar outcomes this time.
The Almanac emphasizes its forecast is for broad October trends, offering a seasonal guide rather than a day‑by‑day prediction, and contrasts remain between its outlook and NOAA's official expectations.
