The aurora borealis forecast shows the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Space Weather Prediction Center has issued a G2 Moderate geomagnetic storm watch for an upcoming Friday night through Saturday period, as a coronal hole is sending a high speed solar wind stream toward Earth, and models project the Kp index will reach 6 overnight, potentially expanding the auroral oval farther south than usual.
NOAA modeling and related forecasts indicate overhead visibility is most likely in Alaska, Montana, North Dakota, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, Maine, Vermont and New Hampshire, while potential visibility along the northern horizon could include Oregon, Wyoming, Nebraska, Iowa, Illinois, Indiana, Ohio, Pennsylvania, New York, Massachusetts and Connecticut, with the most vivid displays reserved for higher latitudes, as reported by NOAA and news coverage.
Space weather experts cited in reporting say geomagnetic disturbances often peak in three hour windows, and they point to late evening into early morning as the best viewing window, typically around ten PM to two AM local time, and they advise looking toward the northern horizon, because a higher Kp number increases the chance of auroras appearing farther south.
Forecast Tool Outage And Practical Viewing Advice
Operationally, NOAA’s Aurora Viewline is offline because of technical problems with underlying data, according to reporting by the Tallahassee Democrat and USA TODAY, and NOAA operations chief Mike Bettwy told USA TODAY the agency expects to restore the product over the next several days while interactive maps remain available to the public.
USA TODAY also offered an alternate state list for likely visibility that includes Alaska, Idaho, Iowa, Illinois, Maine, Michigan, Minnesota, Montana, Nebraska, New Hampshire, New York, North Dakota, Oregon, South Dakota, Vermont, Washington, Wisconsin and Wyoming, and it noted a moderate chance of aurora across the northern tier because of the G2 watch.
Practical tips drawn from reporting and the UAF Geophysical Institute recommend escaping urban light, checking cloud cover, allowing eyes at least twenty minutes to adapt, using a tripod for long exposures and using smartphone Night Mode to capture colors, and the institute warned that cloud cover and light pollution remain the main obstacles to a successful sighting.
