Geomagnetic storm aurora visibility is expected to expand across northern US states after NOAA upgraded its forecast to a G2 geomagnetic storm, following detection of an Earth directed coronal mass ejection, as reported by Forbes.
The increased activity follows a coronal hole on the sun that has produced a fast, turbulent solar wind and several coronal mass ejections, according to Spaceweather.com and reporting in Forbes.
NOAA and Forbes say a G1 forecast would already allow aurora to be seen from Alaska and northerly parts of Washington, Idaho, Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan and Maine.
Forecasters warned that if the event reaches G2 strength, viewing could extend farther south into Oregon, Wyoming, Nebraska, Iowa, Illinois, Indiana, Ohio, New York, Vermont and New Hampshire, according to NOAA as cited by Forbes.
Sky conditions may help, since a new moon means darker skies and better chances to see faint aurora on the northern horizon, a point noted in Forbes coverage and mapped by NOAA.
Forecasting, Indicators, And Viewing Tips
NOAA’s Space Weather Prediction Center relies on real time solar wind data from the DSCOVR satellite, which monitors conditions about a million miles from Earth, and that data narrows arrival timing to roughly a 30 minute warning window, as described in Forbes.
Forecast models commonly use the Kp index, but Forbes reports experts stress the interplanetary magnetic field’s Bz component as the more critical indicator for aurora. A sustained southward Bz near negative five nanotesla typically signals stronger potential displays.
The Geophysical Institute forecast provided multi day Kp predictions showing several days with Kp near five and at least one day with Kp at six, indicating periods of elevated geomagnetic activity.
For real time checks and alerts, NOAA’s 30 minute aurora forecast is recommended, and apps such as Aurora Now, My Aurora Forecast and Glendale Aurora offer up to the minute alerts and live solar wind data, as noted by Forbes.
Observers are advised to move away from northern city lights, look toward the northern horizon during late evening through early morning hours, and use smartphone cameras to capture faint displays, guidance echoed across the reports.
